[2022-07-26. Wow, nothing ages nearly as badly as technology predictions made in 2002 and guessing at a five-year plan. One has to remember that this was made five-years before the introduction of the Apple iPhone and at the time PDAs (Personal Digital Assistances) like the Palm Pilot espoused as the height of hand-held technology. Wow. Enjoy.]
By Joe Bustillos
- School Setting: 2011 Suburban K-5 school, So California middle-class neighborhood (moderate SES), 800 students, 40 faculty members, mixed student population: 40% Latino, 23% Black, 20% White, 17% Asian. NOTE: 5th grade students being promoted in 2011 were born in 2001
- Technology Settings: 6 18-month product cycles from Summer 2002 to Spring 2011 (Moore’s Law, computing power doubles every 18 months) –
- Technology trends – current laptops/PDAs:
- PC: Dell, P3-1Ghz, 128MB SDRAM, 20GB harddirve, 802.11b connection = $1,691
- Apple: iBook – G3-700 Mhz, 256MB SDRAM, 30GB harddive, needs 802.11b = $1,557
- PDA – Toshiba Pocket PC e310, Pocket PC 2002 OS, 320×240 screen, 16-bit color, Intel StrongArm 206-MHz CPU, 32MB ROM, 32MB RAM = $400
- PDA – Handspring Treo 90 – Palm OS 4.01, 160 x 160 screen, 12-bit color, DragonBall VZ 33-MHZ CPU, 16MB RAM = $299
- Technology trends – 2011 “Guesses”:
- Laptops – P5 – 4GHz CPU, 1.5GHz RAM, 120GB harddrive, full-time hi-speed (100Mb) wireless networking = $1,800
- PDAs – 1GHz CPU, 320 x 240 screen, 32-bit color (possible heads-up/eyeglass display to mimic 19″ display), 256MB ROM, 256 MB RAM, full-time hi-speed (100Mb) wireless networking (making local storage less necessary) = $400
- Consideration:
- Hardware moves faster than software/OS upgrades
- hardware doubles every 18-months = 6 cycles from Summer 2002 to Spring 2011
- Software/OS upgrades every three to five years
- Current Trends do not equal Future Products
- One Laptop Market & One PDA Market Current trends would indicate favor Windows/PC derivative succeeding, PDA market still up for grabs
- PDA Domination – Server only PCs PDA derivatives ubiquitous, “PC”s only seen as remote servers
- Unknown Technology – doesn’t currently exist
- Examples of PDA uses in current schools
- Hardware moves faster than software/OS upgrades
- Technology trends – current laptops/PDAs:
- Scenario One – Laptops for Everyone Fast to market, all moneys poured into hardware, basic “productivity” apps, and networking, minimal put into installation, none into training, curriculum planning/implementation, product maintenance. Teachers/admin looking for one-application solutions to “connect tech to classroom learning” (none exists = technology’s “loch ness monster”); after much hype and into glitz, no one knows how to use the things, cannot maintain systems, more money thrown at problem (hardware/software/network infrastructure); four years to “implement” with no measurable results (standardized testing); products purchased at the beginning (2002/2003) are obsolete/in disrepair by 2007; new funding proposal cycle 2007 – 2011 rejected by public because of 5-year record of failure, schools is left with hundred of antiquated and failing laptops (and no curriculum!)
- Scenario Two – “Punctuated Evolution” Two tier PC/PDA approach over five years
- Year One – Classroom Support – Network infrastructure – Tech Training – Curriculum Planning
- Two inexpensive PCs per classroom for teacher training, whole class instruction, and future PDA support
- Create wireless network to support classroom PCs and future PDA file-sharing
- Train pilot teachers on PC apps/PDA functions
- Begin curriculum writing, first with pilot grade levels
- Year Two – Pilot PC/PDA program (one primary classroom, one upper grade classroom)
- Two class-sets of PDAs (with “Stowaway”-type keyboards and wireless network connections) for pilot classrooms
- Continue curriculum writing for pilot classrooms
- Continue training for pilot teachers
- Begin training for one pilot teacher for remaining grade levels (four)
- Begin curriculum writing for remaining grade levels (four)
- Year Three – Pilot PC/PDA for remaining grade levels/Continue previous pilot programs
- Four class-sets of PDAs (with “Stowaway”-type keyboards and wireless network connections) for pilot classrooms
- Continue training for pilot teachers (new)
- Continue curriculum writing for pilot classrooms (all)
- Begin tech training 1/2 staff (upper grade/lower grades, GATE, specially funded classroom???)
- Begin tech-integration/curriculum training 1/2 staff
- Year Four – Implement PC/PDA program 1/2 site
- Class-sets of of PDAs (with “Stowaway”-type keyboards and wireless network connections) for 1/2 classrooms
- Continue tech-training 1/2 staff
- Continue tech-integration/curriculum training 1/2 staff
- Begin tech-training remaining 1/2 staff
- Begin tech-integration/curriculum training remaining 1/2 staff
- Year Five – Implement PC/PDA program remain 1/2 staff
- Class-sets of of PDAs (with “Stowaway”-type keyboards and wireless network connections) for remaining 1/2 classrooms
- Continue tech-training remaining 1/2 staff
- Continue tech-integration/curriculum training remaining 1/2 staff
- Investigate Next-Step Technologies replace/supplement current implementation (products/funding)
- Year Six through Nine – Supplement/Support/Improve Existing System
- Year One – Classroom Support – Network infrastructure – Tech Training – Curriculum Planning