[2022-07-26. Wow, nothing ages nearly as badly as technology predictions made in 2002 and guessing at a five-year plan. One has to remember that this was made five-years before the introduction of the Apple iPhone and at the time PDAs (Personal Digital Assistances) like the Palm Pilot espoused as the height of hand-held technology. Wow. Enjoy.]

By Joe Bustillos

  1. School Setting: 2011 Suburban K-5 school, So California middle-class neighborhood (moderate SES), 800 students, 40 faculty members, mixed student population: 40% Latino, 23% Black, 20% White, 17% Asian. NOTE: 5th grade students being promoted in 2011 were born in 2001
  2. Technology Settings: 6 18-month product cycles from Summer 2002 to Spring 2011 (Moore’s Law, computing power doubles every 18 months) –
    1. Technology trends – current laptops/PDAs:
      1. PC: Dell, P3-1Ghz, 128MB SDRAM, 20GB harddirve, 802.11b connection = $1,691
      2. Apple: iBook – G3-700 Mhz, 256MB SDRAM, 30GB harddive, needs 802.11b = $1,557
      3. PDA – Toshiba Pocket PC e310, Pocket PC 2002 OS, 320×240 screen, 16-bit color, Intel StrongArm 206-MHz CPU, 32MB ROM, 32MB RAM = $400
      4. PDA – Handspring Treo 90 – Palm OS 4.01, 160 x 160 screen, 12-bit color, DragonBall VZ 33-MHZ CPU, 16MB RAM = $299
    2. Technology trends – 2011 “Guesses”:
      1. Laptops – P5 – 4GHz CPU, 1.5GHz RAM, 120GB harddrive, full-time hi-speed (100Mb) wireless networking = $1,800
      2. PDAs – 1GHz CPU, 320 x 240 screen, 32-bit color (possible heads-up/eyeglass display to mimic 19″ display), 256MB ROM, 256 MB RAM, full-time hi-speed (100Mb) wireless networking (making local storage less necessary) = $400
    3. Consideration:
      1. Hardware moves faster than software/OS upgrades
        1. hardware doubles every 18-months = 6 cycles from Summer 2002 to Spring 2011
        2. Software/OS upgrades every three to five years
      2. Current Trends do not equal Future Products
        1. One Laptop Market & One PDA Market Current trends would indicate favor Windows/PC derivative succeeding, PDA market still up for grabs
        2. PDA Domination – Server only PCs PDA derivatives ubiquitous, “PC”s only seen as remote servers
        3. Unknown Technology – doesn’t currently exist
      3. Examples of PDA uses in current schools
        1. Palm PDAs used in tech high school
        2. Palm PDAs used in a private school
        3. PDAs in the classroom – WiredRadio interview of Elliot Soloway (MP3)
        4. Maine tech funding threatened
  3. Scenario One – Laptops for Everyone Fast to market, all moneys poured into hardware, basic “productivity” apps, and networking, minimal put into installation, none into training, curriculum planning/implementation, product maintenance. Teachers/admin looking for one-application solutions to “connect tech to classroom learning” (none exists = technology’s “loch ness monster”); after much hype and into glitz, no one knows how to use the things, cannot maintain systems, more money thrown at problem (hardware/software/network infrastructure); four years to “implement” with no measurable results (standardized testing); products purchased at the beginning (2002/2003) are obsolete/in disrepair by 2007; new funding proposal cycle 2007 – 2011 rejected by public because of 5-year record of failure, schools is left with hundred of antiquated and failing laptops (and no curriculum!)
  4. Scenario Two – “Punctuated Evolution” Two tier PC/PDA approach over five years
    1. Year One – Classroom Support – Network infrastructure – Tech Training – Curriculum Planning
      1. Two inexpensive PCs per classroom for teacher training, whole class instruction, and future PDA support
      2. Create wireless network to support classroom PCs and future PDA file-sharing
      3. Train pilot teachers on PC apps/PDA functions
      4. Begin curriculum writing, first with pilot grade levels
    2. Year Two – Pilot PC/PDA program (one primary classroom, one upper grade classroom)
      1. Two class-sets of PDAs (with “Stowaway”-type keyboards and wireless network connections) for pilot classrooms
      2. Continue curriculum writing for pilot classrooms
      3. Continue training for pilot teachers
      4. Begin training for one pilot teacher for remaining grade levels (four)
      5. Begin curriculum writing for remaining grade levels (four)
    3. Year Three – Pilot PC/PDA for remaining grade levels/Continue previous pilot programs
      1. Four class-sets of PDAs (with “Stowaway”-type keyboards and wireless network connections) for pilot classrooms
      2. Continue training for pilot teachers (new)
      3. Continue curriculum writing for pilot classrooms (all)
      4. Begin tech training 1/2 staff (upper grade/lower grades, GATE, specially funded classroom???)
      5. Begin tech-integration/curriculum training 1/2 staff
    4. Year Four – Implement PC/PDA program 1/2 site
      1. Class-sets of of PDAs (with “Stowaway”-type keyboards and wireless network connections) for 1/2 classrooms
      2. Continue tech-training 1/2 staff
      3. Continue tech-integration/curriculum training 1/2 staff
      4. Begin tech-training remaining 1/2 staff
      5. Begin tech-integration/curriculum training remaining 1/2 staff
    5. Year Five – Implement PC/PDA program remain 1/2 staff
      1. Class-sets of of PDAs (with “Stowaway”-type keyboards and wireless network connections) for remaining 1/2 classrooms
      2. Continue tech-training remaining 1/2 staff
      3. Continue tech-integration/curriculum training remaining 1/2 staff
      4. Investigate Next-Step Technologies replace/supplement current implementation (products/funding)
    6. Year Six through Nine – Supplement/Support/Improve Existing System